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Thursday, July 06, 2006

North Korean Missile Launchings - What Next?

In Seoul, passengers on a subway train watch TV screens broadcasting North Korea's test launches.
In Seoul, passengers on a subway train watch TV screens broadcasting North Korea's test launches (Michael Abramowitz and Robin Wright in WaPo). There are few good choices in North-Korean stand-off (David E. Sanger in NYT).

Actually there are only bad choices. Ignoring the situation is obviously a very bad choice. Military replica is not only worse - it can be catastrophic. Economic sanctions leverage is in this case as bad as ignoring the issue. The only bad choice that is not as bad as it seems is to negotiate: you lose, you gain, you lose, you gain - you will never get all what you want, but you will avoid the worst scenarios.

An important factor in this equation is China. And we should understand that, as David Sanger says, China fears a collapsed and chaotic North Korea more than it fears a nuclear-armed North Korea.

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